USMLE Step 1 Pass Probability Calculator (NBME Score Predictor)
Preparing for USMLE Step 1 is intimidating — and one of the simplest questions that all students will have is:
👉 “Am I ready to pass?”
That is where this USMLE Step 1 Pass Probability Calculator comes in handy
Simply input your NBME practice exam score, and our calculator instantly calculates your chances of passing Step 1.
🔍 Why Use an NBME Score Calculator?
The National Board of Medical Examiners (NBME) practice exams are the best predictors of your performance on Step 1.
- NBME scores are highly correlated with real Step 1 scores.
- Your approximated score tells you if you are above or below the passing grade (196).
- With a quick calculation, you can minimize uncertainty and organize your prep more intelligently.
📊 How the Step 1 Pass Predictor Works
Our calculator employes NBME score-to-pass probability data gathered from tens of thousands of students
- <190 → Low chance of passing (<30%)
- 190–195 → About 50% chance
- 196–205 → 70–80% chance (borderline safe)
- 206–215 → 85–90% chance (strong)
- 216–225 → 90–95% chance (very strong)
- >225 → 95–99% probability (excellent)
We alsokeep in mind the ±10 point error margin in NBME scores — so you understand your realistic probability range.
⚡ Features of the USMLE Step 1 Calculator
✅ Instant Probability Estimate – Enter NBME score, see immediate results
✅ Color-Coded Risk Zones – Red (risky), Yellow (borderline), Green (safe)
✅ Trend Tracking – Input a sequence of NBME scores to track progress
✅ Personalized Advice – Advice tailored to your probability level
🧠 How to Use This Tool Effectively
- Take at least two standalone NBME practice tests.
- Enter your latest NBME score into the calculator.
- Review your margin of safety and probability of passing.
- Use results to decide if you are ready or need extra prep time.
💡 Tip: The majority of experts recommend being 10–15 points higher than the passing cutoff (≥205–210) before sitting the actual Step 1.
🏆 Why This Tool Benefits Medical Students
- Reduces stress by giving you fact-based information.
- Helps you decide whether to postpone or sit for the exam.
- Guides smarter study planning and confidence building.
📌 Disclaimer
This calculator is only for educational purposes. While NBME scores are highly predictive, no calculator can guarantee your actual USMLE Step 1 score. Always take the counsel of mentors and estimate your readiness in a general sense.